January 24, 2018
08:30am - 1:00pm
Grand Hotel
Södra Blasieholmshamnen 8, Stockholm

Where are the credit markets heading in 2018?

Each year Moody’s Credit Trends brings together over 1,100 senior investors, issuers and intermediaries to discuss credit insights, potential scenarios and the risks that you might be facing in the year ahead.

Against a backdrop of stronger macroeconomic growth and the potential for normalising monetary policy: Will credit markets remain robust as monetary stimulus fades? What are the risks that political or other shocks could derail the supportive macroeconomic and fiscal trends? How will European banks continue to cope with profitability challenges?

Credit Trends not only seek answers to these big questions, but enables you to get behind the headlines into the key drivers of credit for sovereigns, financial institutions and corporates for the year ahead.


08.30    Registration & Coffee

09.00    Welcome Address

Global Themes Shaping Credit in 2018

Opening Remarks

Marie Elvesol, Vice  President, Head of Relationship Management for the Nordics


Sean Marion, Managing  Director, Financial Institutions Group 

09.10     Keynote Presentation: EU Sovereigns 

While Political Risks Flare Up Intermittently, Fundamentals Provide Support

  • Near-term economic stability, but longer-term macroeconomic risks remain
  • Update on Brexit and other political issues of the time such as Catalunya
  • Debt tolerance of high-income countries – what if yields start to rise?
Sarah  Carlson, CFA, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group

09.50    Presentation: Default and Rating Trends

Insights from Moody’s Proprietary Data

  • Outlook for default rates in the year ahead
  • Insights into rating changes and performance
  • How do ratings and market signals compare?
Colin Ellis, Managing Director, Credit Strategy

10.10    Banking Plenary Panel

How Will European Banks Continue to Cope with Profitability Challenges

  • Levers that European banks can pull to mitigate profitability pressures and tighten profitability differential with US peers
  • How quickly can Italian, Spanish, Portuguese and Irish banks reduce non-performing loans
  • Overview of different banks have failed/resolved in Southern Europe


Sean Marion, Managing  Director, Financial Institutions Group 


Jean  Francois Tremblay,  Associate Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group 
Louise  Lundberg, Vice  President - Senior Credit Officer, Financial Institutions Group
Alexander  Zeidler, Vice  President Senior Credit Officer, Covered Bonds  

11.00  Networking & Coffee Break

11.30    Spotlight Conversation

Monetary Policy and The Economic Outlook  

  • Expansionary monetary policy: A necessary  condition for inflation to stay at 2 per cent in the coming years
  • Strong growth/good development of the Swedish  economy despite cooler housing market
  • Structural problems remain in the housing and  mortgage markets


Maria  Gillholm, Vice  President - Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Group 


Martin Flodén, Deputy Governor, Riksbank 

12.15     Corporate Plenary Panel

Which Sectors Will Lead in a Context of Stronger Economic Growth and Tighter Monetary Policies

  • Which corporate sectors might suffer or benefit from more normal levels of interest rates
  • Discussing how M&A, investment plans and financial policies might evolve
  • What is the potential for environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues to impact on investment decisions and credit quality
  • Differences in corporate credit trends by country / region


Sean Marion, Managing  Director, Financial Institutions Group 


Maria  Gillholm, Vice  President - Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Group
Graham  Taylor, Vice  President – Senior Credit Officer, Public Project & Infrastructure Finance

12.55    Closing Remarks

13.00   Close of the Event

Guest Speaker

Martin Flodén
Deputy Governor

Moody's Speakers

Sean Marion
Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group
Maria Gillholm
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Group
Graham Taylor
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Infrastructure Finance
Sarah Carlson
CFA, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group
Jean Francois Tremblay
Associate Managing Director, Global Financial Institutions - Europe, Middle East and Africa
Colin Ellis
Managing Director, Credit Strategy
Louise Lundberg
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer
Marie Elvesol
Vice President, Head of Relationship Management for the Nordics

Why Attend

Network with top Moody's analysts and key market participants
Discover fresh perspectives on the market dynamics
Analyse which trends will have the most significant impact in the year ahead

2018 Global Credit Themes

The global economy will maintain solid momentum through 2018.
Financial stability
Build-up of risks to financial stability after a decade of low interest rates.
Political and geopolitical risk
Major 2017 global political risks have receded, however regional and country-specific political and geopolitical risks remain.
Technology and innovation
Rapid technological change will continue to transform production processes, business models, and government regulation, all of which will impact credit fundamentals.
Climate change and sustainability
The 2016 Paris Agreement boosted globally coordinated climate action and sustainable financing, while 2017 natural disasters have reinvigorated discussion over disaster preparedness, insurance availability, and infrastructure investment.
The demographic transition taking place over the next two decades will create many challenges for governments and commerce.