Paris

January 23, 2018
08.30am - 1:00pm
Park Hyatt Vendome
5 rue de la Paix, Paris 75002

Where are the credit markets heading in 2018?

Each year Moody’s Credit Trends brings together over 1,100 senior investors, issuers and intermediaries to discuss credit insights, potential scenarios and the risks that you might be facing in the year ahead.

Against a backdrop of stronger macroeconomic growth and the potential for normalising monetary policy: Will credit markets remain robust as monetary stimulus fades? What are the risks that political or other shocks could derail the supportive macroeconomic and fiscal trends? How will European banks continue to cope with profitability challenges?

Credit Trends not only seek answers to these big questions, but enables you to get behind the headlines into the key drivers of credit for sovereigns, financial institutions and corporates for the year ahead.

Agenda

08.30    Registration & Coffee

09.00    Welcome Address

Global Themes Shaping Credit in 2018

OPENING REMARKS

Myriam  Durand, Managing  Director, EMEA Corporate Finance Group

CHAIRPERSON

Yasmina  Serghini, Associate Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group

09.10     Keynote Presentation: EU Sovereigns 

While Political Risks Flare Up Intermittently, Fundamentals Provide Support

  • Near-term economic stability, but longer-term macroeconomic risks remain
  • Update on Brexit and other political issues of the time such as Catalunya
  • Debt tolerance of high-income countries – what if yields start to rise?
Sarah  Carlson, CFA, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group

09.50    Presentation: Default and Rating Trends

Insights from Moody’s Proprietary Data

  • Outlook for default rates in the year ahead
  • Insights into rating changes and performance
  • How do ratings and market signals compare?
Vincent Allilaire, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy

10.10    Spotlight Conversation: Monetary Policy  and Financial Risks  

MODERATOR

Alain  Laurin, Associate Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group 

Guest Speaker

Olivier Irisson, Chief Financial Officer, Groupe BPCE

11.00    Networking & Coffee Break

11.30    Banking Plenary Panel

How Will European Banks Continue to Cope with Profitability Challenges

  • Levers that European banks can pull to mitigate profitability pressures and tighten profitability differential with US peers
  • How quickly can Italian, Spanish, Portuguese and Irish banks reduce non-performing loans
  • Overview of different banks have failed/resolved in Southern Europe

MODERATOR

Yasmina  Serghini, Associate Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group

PANELLISTS

Alain  Laurin, Associate Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group 
Guillaume  Lucien-Baugas, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Financial Institutions Group 
Elise Lucotte, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Covered Bonds
Benjamin Serra, Vice  President, Senior Credit Officer, Insurance Group

12.15     Corporate Plenary Panel

Which Sectors Will Lead in a Context of Stronger Economic Growth and Tighter Monetary Policies

  • Which corporate sectors might suffer or benefit from more normal levels of interest rates
  • Discussing how M&A, investment plans and financial policies might evolve
  • What is the potential for environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues to impact on investment decisions and credit quality
  • Differences in corporate credit trends by country / region

MODERATOR

Yasmina  Serghini, Associate Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group

PANELISTS

Myriam  Durand, Managing  Director, EMEA Corporate Finance Group
Vincent  Gusdorf, Vice  President - Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group  
Paul Marty, Senior Vice President, Public Project & Infrastructure Finance

12.55    Closing Remarks

13.00   Close of the Event

Guest Speaker

Olivier Irisson
Chief Financial Officer
Groupe BPCE

Moody's Speakers

Myriam Durand
Managing Director, EMEA Corporate Finance Group
Yasmina Serghini
Associate Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group
Vincent Gusdorf
Vice President - Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group
Paul Marty
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Infrastructure Finance Group
Sarah Carlson
CFA, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group
Alain Laurin
Associate Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group
Elise Lucotte
Vice President Senior Creidt Office - Structured Finance Group
Guillaume Lucien-Baugas
Vice President - Senior Analyst, Financial Institutions Group

Why Attend

NETWORK
Network with top Moody's analysts and key market participants
Discover
Discover fresh perspectives on the market dynamics
Analyze
Analyse which trends will have the most significant impact in the year ahead

2018 Global Credit Themes

Growth
The global economy will maintain solid momentum through 2018.
Financial stability
Build-up of risks to financial stability after a decade of low interest rates.
Political and geopolitical risk
Major 2017 global political risks have receded, however regional and country-specific political and geopolitical risks remain.
Technology and innovation
Rapid technological change will continue to transform production processes, business models, and government regulation, all of which will impact credit fundamentals.
Climate change and sustainability
The 2016 Paris Agreement boosted globally coordinated climate action and sustainable financing, while 2017 natural disasters have reinvigorated discussion over disaster preparedness, insurance availability, and infrastructure investment.
Demographics
The demographic transition taking place over the next two decades will create many challenges for governments and commerce.

Venue