Munich

February 6, 2018
08:30am - 1:00pm
Hotel Bayerischer Hof
Promenadeplatz 2-6 D-80333 München

Where are the credit markets heading in 2018?

Each year Moody’s Credit Trends brings together over 1,100 senior investors, issuers and intermediaries to discuss credit insights, potential scenarios and the risks that you might be facing in the year ahead.

Against a backdrop of stronger macroeconomic growth and the potential for normalising monetary policy: Will credit markets remain robust as monetary stimulus fades? What are the risks that political or other shocks could derail the supportive macroeconomic and fiscal trends? How will European banks continue to cope with profitability challenges?

Credit Trends not only seek answers to these big questions, but enables you to get behind the headlines into the key drivers of credit for sovereigns, financial institutions and corporates for the year ahead.

Agenda

08.30    Registration & Coffee

09.00    Welcome Address

Global Themes Shaping Credit in 2018

OPENING REMARKS

Jens Schmidt-Buergel, Managing Director, Regional Management 

CHAIRPERSON

Matthias  Hellstern, Managing  Director, Corporate Finance Group

09.15    Keynote Presentation: EU Sovereigns 

While Political Risks Flare Up Intermittently, Fundamentals Provide Support

  • Near-term economic stability, but longer-term macroeconomic risks remain
  • Update on Brexit and other political issues of the time such as Catalunya
  • Debt tolerance of high-income countries – what if yields start to rise?
Sarah  Carlson, CFA, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group

10.00    Presentation: Default and Rating Trends

Insights from Moody’s Proprietary Data

  • Outlook for default rates in the year ahead
  • Insights into rating changes and performance
  • How do ratings and market signals compare?
Vincent Allilaire, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy

10.20    Networking & Coffee Break

10.50    Banking Plenary Panel

How Will European Banks Continue to Cope with Profitability Challenges

  • Levers that European banks can pull to mitigate profitability pressures and tighten profitability differential with US peers
  • How quickly can Italian, Spanish, Portuguese and Irish banks reduce non-performing loans
  • Overview of different banks have failed/resolved in Southern Europe

MODERATOR

Matthias  Hellstern, Managing  Director, Corporate Finance Group

PANELLISTS

Alexander  Hendricks, Associate  Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group 
Swen  Metzler, Vice  President – Senior Analyst , Financial Institutions Group 
Patrick Widmayer, Vice  President - Senior Analyst, Covered Bonds

11.50     Corporate Plenary Panel

Which Sectors Will Lead in a Context of Stronger Economic Growth and Tighter Monetary Policies

  • Which corporate sectors might suffer or benefit from more normal levels of interest rates
  • Discussing how M&A, investment plans and financial policies might evolve
  • What is the potential for environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues to impact on investment decisions and credit quality
  • Differences in corporate credit trends by country / region

MODERATOR

Matthias  Hellstern, Managing  Director, Corporate Finance Group

PANELLISTS

Matthias  Heck, Vice  President – Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group 
Graham Taylor, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Public Project & Infrastructure Finance

12.50    Closing Remarks

12.55   Close of the Event

Guest Speaker

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Moody's Speakers

Matthias Hellstern
Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group
Matthias Heck
Vice President - Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group
Graham Taylor
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Infrastructure Finance
Alexander Hendricks
Associate Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group
Swen Metzler
Vice President - Senior Analyst , Financial Institutions Group
Jens Schmidt-Buergel
Managing Director, Regional Management
Patrick Widmayer
Vice President - Senior Analyst, Structured Finance
Sarah Carlson
CFA, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group

Why Attend

NETWORK
Network with top Moody's analysts and key market participants
Discover
Discover fresh perspectives on the market dynamics
Analyze
Analyse which trends will have the most significant impact in the year ahead

2018 Global Credit Themes

Growth
The global economy will maintain solid momentum through 2018.
Financial stability
Build-up of risks to financial stability after a decade of low interest rates.
Political and geopolitical risk
Major 2017 global political risks have receded, however regional and country-specific political and geopolitical risks remain.
Technology and innovation
Rapid technological change will continue to transform production processes, business models, and government regulation, all of which will impact credit fundamentals.
Climate change and sustainability
The 2016 Paris Agreement boosted globally coordinated climate action and sustainable financing, while 2017 natural disasters have reinvigorated discussion over disaster preparedness, insurance availability, and infrastructure investment.
Demographics
The demographic transition taking place over the next two decades will create many challenges for governments and commerce.

Venue