Milan

February 9, 2018
8:30am - 1:00pm
Grand Hotel et de Milan
Via Manzoni 29, 20121 Milan

Where are the credit markets heading in 2018?

Each year Moody’s Credit Trends brings together over 1,100 senior investors, issuers and intermediaries to discuss credit insights, potential scenarios and the risks that you might be facing in the year ahead.

Against a backdrop of stronger macroeconomic growth and the potential for normalising monetary policy: Will credit markets remain robust as monetary stimulus fades? What are the risks that political or other shocks could derail the supportive macroeconomic and fiscal trends? How will European banks continue to cope with profitability challenges?

Credit Trends not only seek answers to these big questions, but enables you to get behind the headlines into the key drivers of credit for sovereigns, financial institutions and corporates for the year ahead.

Agenda

08.30    Registration & Coffee

09.10    Welcome Address

Global Themes Shaping Credit in 2018

CHAIRPERSON

Massimo Visconti, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Sub Sovereign Group

09.20     Keynote Presentation: EU Sovereigns 

While Political Risks Flare Up Intermittently, Fundamentals Provide Support

  • Near-term economic stability, but longer-term macroeconomic risks remain
  • Update on political challenges such as Brexit and Catalunya
  • Debt tolerance of high-income countries – what if yields start to rise?
  • Italy: Stronger economy versus political risks
Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group

10.00    Spotlight Conversation: Italy's Public Finance in a Context of Moderate Growth

MODERATOR

Massimo Visconti, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Sub Sovereign Group

Guest Speaker

Carlo Cottarelli, Economist, Director of Osservatorio sui Conti Pubblici Università Cattolica Milano, former IMF Executive Director

10.30    Presentation: Default and Rating Trends

Insights from Moody’s Proprietary Data

  • Outlook for default rates in the year ahead
  • Insights into rating changes and performance
  • How do ratings and market signals compare?
Marco Szego, Senior Vice  President, Credit Strategy

10.50    Networking & Coffee Break

11.20    Banking Plenary Panel

How Will European Banks Continue to Cope with Profitability Challenges

  • Levers that European banks can pull to mitigate profitability pressures and tighten profitability differential with US peers
  • How quickly can Italian, Spanish, Portuguese and Irish banks reduce non-performing loans
  • Overview of different banks have failed/resolved in Southern Europe

MODERATOR

Massimo Visconti, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Sub Sovereign Group

PANELLISTS

Carlo  Gori, Vice  President, Senior Analyst, Financial Institutions Group
Edoardo  Calandro, Vice  President, Analyst, Financial Institutions Group 
Michelangelo  Margaria, Senior  Vice President, Structured Finance Group

12.05     Corporate Plenary Panel

Which Sectors Will Lead in a Context of Stronger Economic Growth and Tighter Monetary Policies

  • Which corporate sectors might suffer or benefit from more normal levels of interest rates
  • Discussing how M&A, investment plans and financial policies might evolve
  • What is the potential for environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues to impact on investment decisions and credit quality
  • Differences in corporate credit trends by country / region

MODERATOR

Massimo Visconti, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Sub Sovereign Group

PANELLISTS

Paolo  Leschiutta, Vice  President, Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Group 
Raffaella  Altamura, Vice President, Senior Analyst, Public Project & Infrastructure Finance
Lorenzo Re, Vice  President, Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group

12.50    Closing Remarks

12.55   Close of the Event

Guest Speaker

Carlo Cottarelli
Economist, Director of Osservatorio sui Conti Pubblici Università Cattolica Milano, former IMF Executive Director

Moody's Speakers

Paolo Leschiutta
Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Group
Raffaella Altamura
Vice President, Senior Analyst, Infrastructure Finance Group
Lorenzo Re
Vice President, Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group
Katrin Muehlbronner
Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group
Carlo Gori
Vice President -Senior Analyst, Financial Institutions Group
Michelangelo Margaria
Senior Vice President, Structured Finance Group
Marco Szego
Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy
Edoardo Calandro
Vice President - Analyst, Financial Institutions Group
Massimo Visconti
Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Sub Sovereign Group

Why Attend

NETWORK
Network with top Moody's analysts and key market participants
Discover
Discover fresh perspectives on the market dynamics
Analyze
Analyse which trends will have the most significant impact in the year ahead

2018 Global Credit Themes

Growth
The global economy will maintain solid momentum through 2018.
Financial stability
Build-up of risks to financial stability after a decade of low interest rates.
Political and geopolitical risk
Major 2017 global political risks have receded, however regional and country-specific political and geopolitical risks remain.
Technology and innovation
Rapid technological change will continue to transform production processes, business models, and government regulation, all of which will impact credit fundamentals.
Climate change and sustainability
The 2016 Paris Agreement boosted globally coordinated climate action and sustainable financing, while 2017 natural disasters have reinvigorated discussion over disaster preparedness, insurance availability, and infrastructure investment.
Demographics
The demographic transition taking place over the next two decades will create many challenges for governments and commerce.

Venue