January 30, 2018
8:30am - 1:00pm
Grand Connaught
61-65 Great Queen Street, WC2B 5DA London

Where are the credit markets heading in 2018?

Each year Moody’s Credit Trends brings together over 1,100 senior investors, issuers and intermediaries to discuss credit insights, potential scenarios and the risks that you might be facing in the year ahead.

Against a backdrop of stronger macroeconomic growth and the potential for normalising monetary policy: Will credit markets remain robust as monetary stimulus fades? What are the risks that political or other shocks could derail the supportive macroeconomic and fiscal trends? How will European banks continue to cope with profitability challenges?

Credit Trends not only seek answers to these big questions, but enables you to get behind the headlines into the key drivers of credit for sovereigns, financial institutions and corporates for the year ahead.


08.30    Registration & Coffee

09.00    Welcome Address

Global Themes Shaping Credit in 2018


Rob Fauber, President, Moody's Investors Service


Philipp Lotter, Managing  Director, EMEA Corporate Finance Group

09.15     Keynote Presentation: EU Sovereigns 

While Political Risks Flare Up Intermittently, Fundamentals Provide Support

  • Near-term economic stability, but longer-term macroeconomic risks remain
  • Update on Brexit and other political issues of the time such as Catalunya
  • Debt tolerance of high-income countries – what if yields start to rise?
Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group

10.00    Presentation: Default and Rating Trends

Insights from Moody’s Proprietary Data

  • Outlook for default rates in the year ahead
  • Insights into rating changes and performance
  • How do ratings and market signals compare?
Colin Ellis, Managing Director, Credit Strategy

10.15    Spotlight Conversation: Post - Brexit Britain


Sarah  Carlson, CFA, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group

Guest Speaker

Iain Anderson, Executive  Chairman, Cicero Group 

11.00    Networking & Coffee Break

11.30    Banking Plenary Panel

How Will European Banks Continue to Cope with Profitability Challenges

  • Levers that European banks can pull to mitigate profitability pressures and tighten profitability differential with US peers
  • How quickly can Italian, Spanish, Portuguese and Irish banks reduce non-performing loans
  • Overview of different banks have failed/resolved in Southern Europe


Philipp Lotter, Managing  Director, EMEA Corporate Finance Group


Laurie Mayers, Associate  Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group
Antonello Aquino, Associate Managing Director, Insurance Group
Alessandro  Roccati, Senior  Vice President, Financial Institutions Group

12.15     Corporate Plenary Panel

Which Sectors Will Lead in a Context of Stronger Economic Growth and Tighter Monetary Policies

  • Which corporate sectors might suffer or benefit from more normal levels of interest rates
  • Discussing how M&A, investment plans and financial policies might evolve
  • What is the potential for environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues to impact on investment decisions and credit quality
  • Differences in corporate credit trends by country / region


Philipp Lotter, Managing  Director, EMEA Corporate Finance Group


David Riley, Head of Credit Strategy, Bluebay
Anke Richter, Associate  Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group 
Graham Taylor, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Public Project & Infrastructure Finance

12.55    Closing Remarks

13.00   Close of the Event

Guest Speaker

Iain Anderson
Executive Chairman
Cicero Group
David Riley
Head of Credit Strategy

Moody's Speakers

Rob Fauber
President, Moody's Investors Service
Philipp Lotter
Managing Director - EMEA Corporate Finance, Corporate Finance Group
Anke Richter
Associate Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group
Graham Taylor
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Infrastructure Finance
Katrin Muehlbronner
Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group
Laurie Mayers
Associate Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group
Colin Ellis
Managing Director, Credit Strategy
Alessandro Roccati
Senior Vice President, Financial Institutions Group
Antonello Aquino
Associate Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group
Sarah Carlson
CFA, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group

Why Attend

Network with top Moody's analysts and key market participants
Discover fresh perspectives on the market dynamics
Analyse which trends will have the most significant impact in the year ahead

2018 Global Credit Themes

The global economy will maintain solid momentum through 2018.
Financial stability
Build-up of risks to financial stability after a decade of low interest rates.
Political and geopolitical risk
Major 2017 global political risks have receded, however regional and country-specific political and geopolitical risks remain.
Technology and innovation
Rapid technological change will continue to transform production processes, business models, and government regulation, all of which will impact credit fundamentals.
Climate change and sustainability
The 2016 Paris Agreement boosted globally coordinated climate action and sustainable financing, while 2017 natural disasters have reinvigorated discussion over disaster preparedness, insurance availability, and infrastructure investment.
The demographic transition taking place over the next two decades will create many challenges for governments and commerce.