February 8, 2018
08:30am - 1:00pm
Four Seasons
Rua Rodrigo da Fonseca 88, Lisbon

Where are the credit markets heading in 2018?

Each year Moody’s Credit Trends brings together over 1,100 senior investors, issuers and intermediaries to discuss credit insights, potential scenarios and the risks that you might be facing in the year ahead.

Against a backdrop of stronger macroeconomic growth and the potential for normalising monetary policy: Will credit markets remain robust as monetary stimulus fades? What are the risks that political or other shocks could derail the supportive macroeconomic and fiscal trends? How will European banks continue to cope with profitability challenges?

Credit Trends not only seek answers to these big questions, but enables you to get behind the headlines into the key drivers of credit for sovereigns, financial institutions and corporates for the year ahead.


08.30    Registration & Coffee

09.00    Welcome Address

Global Themes Shaping Credit in 2018


Juan  Pablo Soriano, Managing  Director, Covered Bonds

09.15     Keynote Presentation: EU Sovereigns 

While Political Risks Flare Up Intermittently, Fundamentals Provide Support

  • Near-term economic stability, but longer-term macroeconomic risks remain
  • Institutions matter, and the European framework helps most countries to formulate policy responses
  • Update on Brexit and other political issues of the time such as Catalunya
  • Debt tolerance of high-income countries – what if yields start to rise?
Evan  Wohlmann, Vice President, Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group

10.00    Presentation: Default and Rating Trends

Insights from Moody’s Proprietary Data

  • Outlook for default rates in the year ahead
  • Insights into rating changes and performance
  • How do ratings and market signals compare?
Jorge Rodriguez-Valez, Vice President Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy

10.20    Networking & Coffee Break

10.50    Banking Plenary Panel

How Will European Banks Continue to Cope with Profitability Challenges

  • Levers that European banks can pull to mitigate profitability pressures and tighten profitability differential with US peers
  • How quickly can Italian, Spanish, Portuguese and Irish banks reduce non-performing loans
  • Overview of different banks have failed/resolved in Southern Europe


Juan  Pablo Soriano, Managing  Director, Covered Bonds


Maria  Cabanyes, Senior  Vice President, Financial Institutions Group
Pepa  Mori, Vice  President, Senior Credit Officer, Financial Institutions Group 
Paul  Millon, Analyst, Covered Bonds

11.50     Corporate Plenary Panel

Which Sectors Will Lead in a Context of Stronger Economic Growth and Tighter Monetary Policies

  • Which corporate sectors might suffer or benefit from more normal levels of interest rates
  • Discussing how M&A, investment plans and financial policies might evolve
  • What is the potential for environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues to impact on investment decisions and credit quality
  • Differences in corporate credit trends by country / region


Juan  Pablo Soriano, Managing  Director, Covered Bonds


Ivan  Palacios , Associate  Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group 
Xavier  Lopez del Rincon, Vice President, Senior Credit Office, Public Project & Infrastructure Finance

12.50    Closing Remarks

12.55   Close of the Event

Guest Speaker

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Moody's Speakers

Juan Pablo Soriano
Managing Director, Structured Finance
Ivan Palacios
Associate Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group
Xavier Lopez del Rincon
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Infrastructure Finance Group
Evan Wohlmann
Vice President - Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group
Maria Cabanyes
Maria Cabanyes, Senior Vice President, Financial Institutions Group
Paul Millon
Analyst, Structured Finance Group
Jorge Rodriguez-Valez
Vice President Senior Credit Officer - CSS
Pepa Mori
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Financial Institutions Group

Why Attend

Network with top Moody's analysts and key market participants
Discover fresh perspectives on the market dynamics
Analyse which trends will have the most significant impact in the year ahead

2018 Global Credit Themes

The global economy will maintain solid momentum through 2018.
Financial stability
Build-up of risks to financial stability after a decade of low interest rates.
Political and geopolitical risk
Major 2017 global political risks have receded, however regional and country-specific political and geopolitical risks remain.
Technology and innovation
Rapid technological change will continue to transform production processes, business models, and government regulation, all of which will impact credit fundamentals.
Climate change and sustainability
The 2016 Paris Agreement boosted globally coordinated climate action and sustainable financing, while 2017 natural disasters have reinvigorated discussion over disaster preparedness, insurance availability, and infrastructure investment.
The demographic transition taking place over the next two decades will create many challenges for governments and commerce.